Horse Racing Betting in 2023: Five Key Differentiators geegeez co.uk

I need to watch it again, but he looked pretty good today, and it’s exciting. Henry Longfellow stuck on well for second and was only beaten a neck, with three lengths back to French Guineas winner Metropolitan. But the big disappointment of the race was the 6-4 favourite Notable Speech, who never really threatened to get in a serious Bolts Up Daily blow. Gordon Elliott’s big hope was sent off the 8-11 favourite for the opening race on day two, having arrived unbeaten in six starts under rules. But the winning post is not on the home bend and there were no signs of panic from de Boinville, as good a man for the big occasion as there is riding in Britain at the moment.

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Mistakes with his fencing likely contributed to him dropping out of contention from before three out, and he was well beaten when unshipping Paul Townend at the last. If you liked Ballyburn for this, his representative is the Henry de Bromhead-trained Slade Steel, who was third and second to the Gallagher Novices’ Hurdle favourite in a bumper and a Grade 1 novice hurdle respectively. Henry is perhaps the best target trainer of all in recent Festivals, his hit rate at the last five being a scarcely believable one in seven. Foxy Jacks has run cross country here three times and failed to get round twice, though he did win on the other occasion! That was in the November handicap last year in which the heavyweights Delta Work and Galvin both went missing, presumed not off.

Types of Horse Race Bets

In the five previous renewals, the race went more in keeping with the form already in the book as 5/1 Duc Des Genievres was the only one of the quintet of Arkle winners between 2015 and 2019 to score at odds against. The four odds-on scorers, in reverse chronological order Footpad, Altior, Douvan and Un De Sceaux, scored by, respectively, 14 lengths, six lengths, seven lengths and six lengths. APPLE AWAY is seemingly held on Reynoldstown form, but I thought she was better than the bare result at Ascot, jumping really well on the whole and trying to battle back when getting squeezed out at the final fence. She was picking up again at the line, and appeals to me as the sort to relish a thorough test of stamina.

Todays Betting Stats

More Grade 1 action, you lucky people, as the first foray over fences, the Arkle Challenge Trophy, follows the Supreme. Somewhat downgraded by the absence of a number of high profile horses, most recently and notably Marine Nationale, the reigning Supreme champ, we’re left with a competitive but trappy wagering challenge. Just when I was anticipating diving into the Coral Cup or the Grand Annual, Matt presents me with the Champion Bumper! However, upon closer inspection, it seems more like a handicap in terms of the betting. The last mare to win the RSA was way back in 1981 (all 10 female runners this century have finished unplaced). All 27 horses fitted with headgear have been beaten this century.

Constitution Hill

• There are plenty of top class efforts in that sequence, a positive which has to be balanced against the busy campaign; that said, she’s had only the one run in 2022.
• He finished off strongly when fourth at Wolverhampton on his latest start.
• I just feel that, if Edwardstone also goes forward, and with any or all of Jonbon, Elixir De Nutz, Funambule Sivola and El Fabiolo snapping at his heels, he’s going to be vulnerable in the last quarter of the race.
• Whether this horse with racing has got quicker and so maybe coming back in trip might be what we need to be looking at.
• Now, field sizes are smaller, the quality of bipeds and quadrupeds alike is higher, and it is consequently a far more predictable affair.
• “He has been good all year, at Doncaster and then Sandown, and he ran a great race in the Lockinge where he came right away from all the horses he raced with.

Winners of one or two races on heavy are 1.4 times more likely to win than heavy maidens; and winners of three heavy ground races previously are more than 1.5 times more likely to prevail than maidens on that extreme of going. This horse is having its second run after a wind op and its first wearing a tongue tie. Both of those might be expected to eke out a little improvement; and look at the contextual snippets block – accessed by clicking the trainer icon (with the red box around it). There we see Fry’s two year record with handicap debutants at any track, which is fairly unexciting, but note above it his record when moving a horse notably in distance. A perfect example of a terrible race in need of a winner, with a single horse moderately favoured by conditions and within a few pounds (see right hand columns) of its last winning mark.

First race on the card is the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle

She beat Dinoblue last time out in a listed Mares chase giving her weight and Dinoblue looked the winner of Wednesdays Grand Annual before hitting the last 2 fences and ruining her chance, staying on strongly to finish a good second. This looks very open between the top four or five in the market, none of which would be a surprise winner. Mystical Power and Tullyhill are a coin toss for which one finishes ahead, my suspicion being that Mystical Power might edge that side bet. The former has his trainer’s long term Supreme record very much in his favour, but his trainer’s recent form very much not. On balance, unless he drifts to a double figure price, I’ll let him beat me – if he did drift he’d be playable win only, I think. Slade Steel has a top trainer and top form behind Ballyburn (who was a strong favourite for this before defecting to the Gallagher).

Gowran Park Tips

His progressive chase form over three miles plus is enough to put him in with a solid shout anyway, but it was his latest performance, when chasing home the smart Our Duke over 2½ miles that underlines his class. The trip would have been plenty sharp enough for Presenting Percy – he had won over 3m 5f two runs earlier – yet he traded blows with a horse that is third favourite for Friday’s Timico Gold Cup. As the coming week progresses the ground will be drying which brings a number of factors into play.

Check out all our bets at Lingfield, Beverley, Listowel, Warwick and Newcastle on Tuesday

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Our Scout and Trader picked out the following bets for the final Race 👇🏼

If you still think taking 7/2 is acceptable when you can get 4/1, you’re doing it wrong. The course has provided an early hunting ground for a number of national hunt legends. Multiple Grand National winners have scored at Bangor, while Gold Cup winning trio Norton’s Coin, Mr Mulligan and Denman all tasted success there before their finest hour. None of the runners with racecourse experience leap off the page, so it may be worth chancing SAINT SEGAL. His dam was a very talented hurdler in France and his half-sister has also won over timber this season, so there is hope that he could be above average.

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And then, when it was all going so well, along came that King George; never going the pace there and succumbing to a couple of – these days – uncharacteristic blunders and pulling up. The favourite, at around 7/2, is A Plus Tard, whose Betfair Chase demolition job at Haydock propelled him to the top of the lists. A model of consistency, APT has yet to finish outside of the first three in 13 Rules starts. Three of those races have been at the Festival where he has the full set of medals; his only gold, mind, came in a handicap, and he’s since finished third in the 2020 Ryanair and runner up in last season’s Gold Cup. That maiden score, like his flat maiden win, was on good ground and, with the drying forecast, conditions look to be in his corner.

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And that’s a wrap for Day 1 at the Cheltenham Festival 2024. Hopefully this has been an entertaining read, and with a little luck, there’s a winner or three in its midst. We’ll all be back to do it again tomorrow – see you then. Mr Vango is a forward goer, so too Apple Away; but the small field means they’ll likely be steady away over this extended trip. Just an even gallop in prospect in all likelihood despite the large field.

Here there appears to be quite strong correlation between Elliott’s four-month form and his Festival form. When looking at a combination of events – say, all trainer’s runners over a period of time – we can derive an overall PRB figure and use that for comparative purposes. Asterion Forlonge – not on his feet for longe [harsh] – is a really talented horse who is probably just a bit soft.

Paul Kealy’s five-step guide to finding a winner

• Price boosts, enhanced odds and other promotions run throughout the year, and particularly around major events like Cheltenham, Royal Ascot and the Grand National.
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• Here you can see what races it has previously contested, where they were staged, over what distance, and where the horse finished.
• It may look surprising that the winner is now the outsider of that trio, but he is the one least likely to stay this six-furlong longer trip, and I’m in agreement with the betting market, for all I like the horse.
• The Championship race of the day was remarkably won by another mare making it 2-0 to the girls so far.

We work with the belief that every race and every meeting is important, so we’ll give exactly the same coverage to a Monday night meeting at Windsor or an ITV Racing covered race at Newmarket. I still think a mark of 67 somewhat underestimates BRAZEN BOLT and back over this track and trip he looks to have plenty going for him. He travelled notably well before winning convincingly on penultimate start and I can see a similar scenario panning out here.

O’Connor has been a fine rider over the years but there are no weak links in the riding line-up here, and this race ought to go to the best horse at the trip, pure and simple. The National Hunt Chase has changed markedly in character since gaining Grade 2 status and being shortened in trip. In some ways that’s a shame, but the farrago of the 2019 running where the few who finished were legless was a pathetic last hurrah for the race of old.

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I’m not keen on backing Appreciate It at around 6/4 in the ‘without’ market either, nor the untested in Grade 1 or on fast ground Teahupoo, or any of his five-year-old contemporaries. No, if I was having a swipe right now, it might be Not So Sleepy without Honeysuckle at 33/1+ each way. He was 5th last year at 125/1 outright, and has dead heated with Epatante in the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth this season. It looks like this year’s Champion Hurdle may be run at an even to quick tempo, with both Appreciate It and Teahupoo generally going forward. However, both took a lead on their most recent starts so perhaps we’ll be erring towards just an even gallop, in which case all should be able to run their races. I also didn’t mention Tommy’s Oscar in that earlier preview, Mrs Ann Hamilton’s flag bearer well worthy of the name check having waltzed away with the Haydock Champion Hurdle trial shortly after publication.

Other Principal races at Ayr racecourse

The table above shows the performance in handicaps of four to seven runners over the last five years. It includes all-weather, flat turf, hurdles and chases, UK and Ireland. Unless there are two or more front-running types in the field, the balance of probabilities is that the race will be steadily run with an acceleration in the latter part of the contest. That suits horses which are able to change gear, i.e. accelerate, late in the play. Many horses cannot, and for these more galloping types, field size truncation is not good. The final component in my facilitation/differentiation quintet is field size.

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• He’s no longer an each way price so I hope he’ll go very close to winning.
• Best of the (limited) British defence is probably Mister Coffey, a perma-bridesmaid trained by Nicky Henderson.
• Douvan has something to prove and has not been seen since sustaining a serious injury in this race a year ago.

He’ll be finishing strongly and looks a solid each way alternative to a ‘nothing between them’ top of the market. If we’re looking for the Hail Mary, a phrase our editor Matt loves so much, then it has to be Latin Verse. He looks so unlike a Boodles winner it’s untrue – this will be his seventh hurdles start and he’s already raced in an all-aged handicap at Ludlow last time out, one which he won by no fewer than 19 lengths. A 10lb rise for that win not only looks lenient – Timeform expected him to get a stone and more – but it creeps him right into the bottom of the handicap. If you’re a lover of figures (and we are, of course) he comes out well on both form and time.

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Ayr racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Ayr Gold Cup. If you are looking to place a bet on this race well in advance of the actual running, then there may be an ante-post market available for you to place your bet. If you are unfamiliar with this type of betting then head over to the OLBG Betting School and read our Ante-Post Horse Racing article which explains how ante-post betting works. Created in 2007, this class two handicap is run over a trip of six furlongs at Doncaster Racecourse and is open to runners who are aged three or older.

Although she hasn’t been at her best this season, she was a 9 ½ length runner-up to Lossiemouth in the International Hurdle here (2m 1f) last time. We know she seems to thrive at the Festival and the fitting of first-time cheekpieces could improve her performance against Lossiemouth. Lossiemouth’s nearest market rival, stablemate Ashroe Diamond, boasts an impressive record of five wins from six starts against her own sex. If the favourite falters due to stamina, Ashroe Diamond could capitalize, although the fitting of a first-time hood for a return to 2m 4f would be a slight concern.

Racing against hardened, more experienced chasers he battled all the way to the line to get within 3 1/2 lengths of the Grade 1-winning Mullins chaser Capodanno and last year’s Brown Advisory winner The Real Whacker. Back down to novice company he should go well but wearing headgear is a big no no in the Brown Advisory and I don’t like that Nicholls is reaching for the first time cheekpieces here. An Ayr maiden winner from six attempts as a juvenile, the Roger Varian-trained son of Profitable has taken a step forward on each of his four starts this season.

While it’s not quite like a Usain Bolt 100m, some of these races are over short distances, which leaves limited time to react. Horse racing is a sport that can be tracked and monitored. By looking at the performance of the horses and their jockeys, we can try to guess how they might perform when the gates open. There are many sites dedicated to horse racing news features. Following these will give you some indication as to what you can expect in the run-up to a big event. Some major bookies even have their own news sections where they combine the latest news from the races with their predictions and outcomes.

Last year’s overall pasting for the home team was reflected in the Gold Cup itself as Irish runners filled out the medal positions, Britain’s top performer being the valiant eleven-year-old Native River in fourth. It is worth further noting that there were only four Irish runners in the field of twelve. With the exception of 152-rated Lord Windermere, who just got the best of a bizarre five-way scrap up the hill in 2014, every other Gold Cup winner since 2007 has been rated at least 164. The average winning rating in that time, bar Lord Windermere, was a touch over 171. With just two months to go until the Cheltenham Festival 2022, thoughts begin to turn to those high class clashes, none more so perhaps than the Blue Riband itself, the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

However, I lean towards the Henry De Bromhead duo of Telmesomethinggirl and Lantry Lady. While Rachel Blackmore seems to prefer Telmesomethinggirl, Lantry Lady shows more potential for further improvement, making her the more intriguing option. 20 of the 24 winners this century have been aged 7-9yo but there’s been an 11yo winner in 2021, a couple of 10yo winners (2007 & 2010) plus a French-bred 6yo in 2018. The three winners before the turn of the century were all 10 & 11yo’s so I’m not sure age is too much of an issue for this race.

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If you are scanning a race, spot a horse making its handicap debut (or even its second run in a handicap), and you don’t make a note to look a tad more closely at said runner, more fool you. Draw and run style seem to be fairly well subsumed into market prices these days; at least into starting price market prices. That leaves an opportunity on earlier shows to snaffle some value. But the big opportunity in my view is with draw and run style in concert.

What really puts me off Harper’s Brook is his record at Cheltenham where he has raced four times without beating a single rival. I’ll be mildly surprised if he finishes the race and stunned, I tell you, STUNNED if he manages to win. I will have to lie down in a dark corner for quite a long time, in fact. He improved again when fourth in the aforementioned Betfair Hurdle last time, not getting the best of luck in the run but staying on strongly after the last and looking for all the world like a step back up in trip would suit.

The Coral-Eclipse looks a one-way Enable fest now that Lord North is out of the race so I’m going elsewhere on the Sandown card on Sunday. O’Brien’s exciting colt produced a massive performance in the Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot, flying home with a withering late run to topple some well-regarded prospects. And with Enable making her long-awaited return in the Coral-Eclipse on Sunday, the stage is set for a sporting showdown to savour. He has shown his best here and went close over course and distance last time out.

These older lads and lasses are now 0 from 24, though Faugheen looks a live chance in a novice chase, probably the Marsh (former JLT) this time around. Philip Hobbs is 0 from 17 in this type of race in the review period, and has only had one horse placed. That was Fair Along, third in the 2008 Champion Chase, and Hobbs tends to fare better at Aintree, though he’s had a wretched season blighted – one suspects – by a touch of the virus. Just one of the 94 runners sporting blinkers or cheekpieces won – Our Vic in the 2008 Ryanair – and such horses’ place strikerate is poor, too.